Of Sports and Rove

First off, I hate horse race analysis, but I am both disgusted and intruiged by how the future of our country almost always turns on B-movie drama.

So concensus is John Kerry won the first debate. This is, of course, good news. LibBlogs for the last few days have been mostly triumphal, although some contain cautionary notes as well. I agree with those who counsel caution.

First off, Rove loves to attack the strengths of his opponent, and everyone knows Kerry has better numbers on domestic issues. So I suspect we're in for a bit of a shocker on the domestic policy debates.

But it gets worse.

Let's look at it with the sports analogy. Everyone loves it when the underdog comes fighting from behind. I know I do, and this weeks favorite can be next weeks underdog - shit, I watch the O's, I'm used to this. And when Ali fought Foreman, don't you think part of what made it so exciting was that, even though he was the champ, there just was no way Ali was going to survive a punching onslaught from Foreman? And when he went to the ropes and took it and took it and took it some more, and finally won, well, THAT was an underdog story.

With that in mind, I think it's very likely that Rove had Bush go to the ropes in the last debate. You may ask why, and point out that it's the most watched debate, and it's also considered the most important. Sure it was , but now we've got a real drama here. The former underdog Kerry is now clearly the Foreman in this fight. He's the challenger, but, shit, what an effin' punch! How could Our Man Shrub survive another round? Well, I don't know about you, but I bet millions of people are glued to their seats, and can't wait to find out. Is Our Man really that much of a chump? Is Their Man really that good? Was it just luck? Holy shit, get the chips and dip. In other words, now more people probably will watch the second debate than otherwise would have.

Remember that the secret to Bush's success is that Rove constantly makes him look like the underdog. He wasn't the underdog going into this debate. He's been leading the war on terror, his numbers on security were good(yes, eroding, but good) and this is where he should have, if not shined, then at least come out ok. There were so many blows he could have landed and didn't.

Also remember, Rove likes to destroy his opponents, and I wonder, is it better to defeat your opponent when he's looking strong, or when he's looking weak? If Kerry gets creamed in the next debate, then not only does Bush look good, but it looks as if the hopes for Kerry were false. And that's devastating, not just to Kerry, but his supporters as well. It could destroy all hope, and then well...I don't want to think about it.

My personal hope is that Kerry was only throwing jabs in the last debate. My other personal hope is that Kerry's got a hidden uppercut: When Shrub says something accusatory to Kerry about how Kerry just wants to "tax the rich", Kerry will turn to Jim Leher and say, "Well, Jim, there he goes again."